Tom Gilbert for Drew Stafford?

Oilers interested in Drew Stafford?

Oilers interested in Drew Stafford?

Okay, it’s been pretty quiet as of late on the Edmonton Oilers / NHL trade rumor front.  For those esurient NHL trade rumor chasers, it’s been tough times…  Fortunately, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal, Cult of Hockey blog, has come across an interesting gem of a rumor involving the Edmonton Oilers and the Buffalo Sabres.

The original article was written in the Buffalo News by Bucky Gleason.  It came to my attention by way of David Staples’ recent article: Tom Gilbert for Drew Stafford.  Here’s is the original quote from Gleason:

“A source in Edmonton says the Oilers would trade puck-moving defenseman Tom Gilbert in a heartbeat for Drew Stafford , if the Sabres were interested. The Oilers, who have longed for Stafford since he entered the league, need a bigger winger. Fat chance. Gilbert would help the PP, but he’ll make $3 million more than Stafford in 2010-11.”

***According to NHL numbers, Gilbert’s cap hit is actually $4.0 million dollars vs. Stafford at $1.9 million which is actually only a difference of $2.1 million dollars relative to the salary cap. At this point, it doesn’t sound like this rumor has an awful lot of legs–yet…

Who is Drew Stafford?

Drew Stafford is a right winger who’s listed at 6’2″ and 216 lbs while being 23 years of age.  He was drafted in the 1st round of the 2004 entry draft by the Buffalo Sabres.

Over the past three seasons in the NHL he’s posted the following numbers:

  • 2006/’07 – 41 GP/ G13/ A14/ P27 +/-  +5 [.66 pts/game]
  • 2007/’08 – 64 GP/ G16/ A22/ P38 +/-  +3 [.59 pts/game]
  • 2008/’09 – 79 GP/ G20/ A25/ P45 +/- +3 [.57 pts/game]

During last year’s season, here’s some number to note:

  • GF-GA= 44-38= 6
  • Shots 183 (SPCT =10.9%)
  • Corsi/60= -2.5
  • Qualcomp (0.05) / Qualteam (0.01)
  • 5v5/60= 1.57, 5v4/60 5.23

Stafford played the third toughest opposition of all players on his team with  relatively average linemates.  Despite this, he had both a positive goals for – goals against differential as well as a postive plus/- number.  However, his Corsi number was negative which means that he was on the ice for more shots against than generated.  His 5v4/60 was quite high which suggests that he plays well on the powerplay; in fact, his points/60 on the powerplay were slightly higher than Hemsky last year (5.0) while receiving a reasonable amount of powerplay time 2.61 (TOI/60).

Overall, I would have mixed feelings on this trade given that I would rather have the Oilers trade one of their older/injury prone defencemen like Souray or Visnovsky.  I have to admit, that I haven’t paid much attention to watching Stafford play in the past, so I can’t count myself among the ‘seen him good.’  Of course, there would also be salary cap issues that would complicate this speculated trade.  All things considered, the idea of moving one of our offensive defenseman for a winger with some size and skill certainly has some appeal–not to mention that it’s been speculated for months already.  As for Buffalo, it’s certainly possible that they’re looking for a puck moving defenseman, so who knows if some trade like this might transpire…

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12 thoughts on “Tom Gilbert for Drew Stafford?

  1. Scouting report on him:
    Assets
    Owns an impressive size/skill package. Can score goals and also play a physical game from the wing position. Works hard.
    Flaws
    Must prove he can play a consistent brand of hockey in all three zones. May not become an elite goal-scorer at the highest level.
    Career Potential
    Top six winger.

    Just my own 2 cents here, I think he describes the kind of player Quinn likes, but right now I’m not sure why we’d bother. JFJ seems to be working not too bad, as is Stone, Penner and Mr. 2 goal night – Stortini. I think Quinn found the size this team was supposedly missing. Maybe we could upgrade one of these guys, but I don’t see the need to drop Gilbert. Although the one good thing about this deal is we shore up $2.1M, and that might be the big factor here.

    I guess Quinn likes what he sees of Chorney so far. And well, Chorney has actually looked not too bad so far. I’d really have liked to have seen one of our d-men moved for someone who can play a solid defensive brand of hockey though. I still don’t think we have any guy here who I feel completely comfortable with defensively.

    I’m also not at all a fan of Souray or Visnovsky being moved. I know I’m likely in the minority with that, but Souray does a lot more for this team that Gilbert does. No slag against Gilbert, but Souray brings the physicality, hard shot, leadership, and decent defensive game. And he’s only $1.4M more. I do like Gilbert, but if the guy ever hits anyone, I’m pretty sure he’s going to follow it up with an apology.

    In the end though, I think I’d prefer hanging on to Gilbert and the other d-men and just dumping Nilsson to get under the cap once Pisani is back. That all said, I wouldn’t be upset at a Stafford for Gilbert trade though.

  2. Hey Racki, yeah it’s always tough in terms of our defensemen given that I really like all three of them (plus Grebs) and that each of them have different skills/qualities. I also like Visnovsky/Souray more than Gilbert. In terms of age/injury concerns/salary, I would probably prefer to move one of Visnovsky/Souray. However, for these same reasons, Gilbert is probably the most tradable of the three.

    After this recent game, I wonder if Nashville’s speculated interest in Nilsson might intensify. Their second line has zero points in four games now which must be a concern to them. Nilsson for the speculated draft pick would solve our salary cap issues when Pisani returns.

    JFJ/Stone in our lineup is working for now, though replacing Stone with Stafford would probably make a noticeable impact on our top six’s production. Stone only had one hit tonight and I’m not too sure how long he can keep up his wrecking ball routine nor do I anticipate him contributing too much on offense.

  3. Yah that’s true about Stone… same with JFJ. They seem to be doing alright so far. Especially when they bring their physical game. But you have to wonder how long they can get by on with their lower-level talent. You’re right that Stafford would be a more reliable upgrade. I’m just happy with what we have right now, and don’t see the need to cut a defenseman for him. But again, I still wouldn’t be upset… he could be a pretty underrated player. Buffalo’s a strange team.. I think a few guys there in the past get lost in the fold.

    Also, I’d be all over Nilsson to Nashville… and you’re right.. they can’t score right now (Aside from the top line), so it’s a logical trade.

    In the words of the OMB’ers, make it happen Tambi!

  4. With the amount of depth we have on our D, I’d say one of the big 4 will be moved soon. I love what Souray and Lubo do for the team, and I don’t want to move them, and Grebs is rounding out to be quite elite and he’ll need a new contract soon…

    I’d usually say go for the trade because we need depth on forward, but we already have tons of depth on forward too and Quinn is making the most out of it.

  5. Hey Racki/Horpensky, yeah things seem to be working okay for now, though we’re only five games into this season. Based on our history (the Oilers), I would be pretty surprised if anything happened until near the trade-deadline.

  6. Hey guys,

    I’m not sure if I like the Gilbert for Stafford trade. When I look at Ryder’s Player Contribution files for 2009, Oilers top contributors were:
    Roli- 211 (meaning he was responsible for 21 of the Oilers 80 odd points last year)
    Souray- 71 (56 offensive contribution, 23 defensive)
    Hemsky- 58
    Gilbert- 55 (22 off, 33 def)
    Grebeshov- 46 (25 off, 22 def)

    Stafford- 44 (29 and 15)

    To properly evaluate Stafford I’d have to plug him into the Oilers lineup, but I haven’t created that model yet. We’d also need to assume some growth as he enters his prime. But my issue is the defensive contribution. The Oilers seem to be full of guys who don’t play well at both ends of the rink. I think Stafford is just another Penner and that JFJ might end up growing into a similar role.

    As for Nilsson, I really wish Quinn would play him a bit. He has flashes of brilliance and I wonder if Quinn could bring that out of him more consistently. I guess Quinn figures he can’t, otherwise he’d be in there.

  7. copper,

    Two games does not a future superstar make. Myers’ junior stats look pretty good and I wouldn’t ever so no to having a guy who is 6’7″ who looks like he can skate.

    Good luck with the new blog.

  8. I agree, I do like what Myers has shown, I guess my point was that I am not in a hurry to give up on Stafford yet. As long as Myers shows that he can move the puck in the short time, I do Think we are HEAVY on defensive defenseman. If you want Paille or Paetsch or even Gerbe, I would be willing to look at this trade more seriously.

  9. Jonathan, yeah I’ve always liked Nilsson as a player. He’s frustratingly inconsistent in scoring, but he doesn’t bleed scoring chances against for a guy that turns the puck over a fair amount. Last year, he was reasonably effective on the power play too. Here’s a rent post that I did looking at Nilsson last year: Nilsson It doesn’t seem like Quinn likes him much or perhaps that he just doesn’t fit into our current roster though.

    Copper101–I almost thought that you were an Oilers fan with the name, “Copper.” Good to get some feedback from a Sabres fan on the Stafford rumor though…

    Prior to this season starting, the consensus seemed to be that the Oilers needed (in order of priority) a 1LW sniper, 3rd line center/faceoff man, back up goalie, and a shut-down dman. Of course, we needed to find some size/grit that we could fit into our top six in particular as well.

    As for Gilbert, he was tied for 16th in the league amongst dmen in scoring last year, so the Oilers would look for a good return should we trade him. Most of the guys that you list, Copper, look more like spare-parts to me, and I don’t think we’d trade Gilbert without getting a big winger who can score or some other harder to find player. Gerbe’s a midget, so he’s definitely out as the Oilers already have too many midgets.

  10. I am a fan of the game. Growing up 5 minutes from Canada I grew up watching CBC. I have always had a soft spot for the Oilers. Smaller market team with a great fan base, similar to Buffalo. Canadians sometimes think of Buffalo as one of the Americanmarket teams and link us in with Nashville and Atlanta etc.. truth is we are a huge hockey market with well established youth hockey, 2 Division 1 college programs (Canisius and Niagara). We are more like a small market Canadian team than any other US based team. I love your site and am going to link it.

    http://livefrombuffalo.wordpress.com/

  11. I think That Gerbe is a midget and some what of a Novelty player. I think that is why Tim Kennedy outplayed him and made the team. I agree that most of the players I named were spare parts and the Oilers should not consider giving us Gilbert for any of them. Heck I wouldnt give us a used Mactavish jersey for most of those guys. I would give you guys Jochen Hecht back for minimal cost if you want him.
    http://livefrombuffalo.wordpress.com/

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