Danny Heatley vs. the trades

NHL Sniper

Dany Heatley’s started this season at a blazing scoring pace with 5 goals and 10 points in just 5 games.  As such, I thought it would be interesting to compare his scoring pace with the two forward players from the failed Oilers trade (Penner, Cogliano) as well as the two players actually acquired from San Jose (Cheecho0, Michalek).  I’ll rely on David Staples over at The Edmonton Journal’s Cult of Hockey blog to continue on during the rest of this season with his Heatley Trade Analyzer.

Former San Jose Sharks:

Milan Michalek – GP4: G0A0P0 +/-  -3

Jonathan Cheechoo – GP4: G0A1P1 +/-  +1

Total= GP 8: G0A1P1 +/-  -2

Nearly traded Oilers:

Dustin Penner – GP 4: G2A1P3 +/-  0

Andrew Cogliano – GP 4:G0A2P2 +/-  0

Total= GP 8: G2A3P5 +/- 0

At this point, it would be completely unreasonable to expect that Dany Heatley will continue onward with his 2 points per game and 1 goal per game pace.  We haven’t had a sixty goal scorer in the NHL since Pavel Bure and Mario Lemieux with Teemu Selanne being the last 70 goal scorer–if my memory serves.  However, so far, he does have more points than Penner, Cogliano, Cheechoo, and Michalek combined.  Last year, Dany Heatley had a very respectable 15.1 shooting percent on 258 shots.  He’s currently maintaining an unrealistic 31.3 shooting percent on 16 shots.

Dany Heatley is currently leading the league with 2 game winning goals and is tied with Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Thornton with 10 points for 1st overall in scoring.

Back to the Oilers…  So far we’ve seen two versions of Dustin Penner this season–one that like to score ‘big-man’ goals and the other that’s looks somewhat asleep at the wheel.  Hopefully, we’ll see more of the former rather than the latter as this season progresses.

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6 thoughts on “Danny Heatley vs. the trades

  1. We have had a 60 goal scorer recently, his name is Alex Ovechkin 😉

    I’ll be cheering him to outduel Heatley for the Rocket Richard!

  2. Its nice to compare and play with the numbers to see who is worth more. But does anyone think he would be on this pace if he would have played against the Flames 2x, Dallas and Montreal.

  3. Horpensky, I am not sure if we’ll see a 60 goal scorer this season, but if we do, Ovechkin would be my guess too. I would also certainly like to see Ovechkin beat Heatley for the Rocket Richard!

    Oilers1168, even this season, Heatley’s scored in spurts with three of his five goals being scored in the San Jose game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s impossible to say, but it would have been tough for him to score much vs. Calgary perhaps, but he might have been able to light up the Canadiens especially without Markov.

  4. Penner is always going to be inconsistent, but if he can have a 40/40 split on good games to average/bad games, he’ll be much improved as last year he was 25-55.

    I like this player, but he’s the most inconsistent bugger I’ve seen in years.

  5. Using Ryder’s Player Contribution numbers from last year.

    Heatley- 50 (49 offense, 1 defense (1 defense is basically AHL quality play)

    Cogliano- 32
    Penner- 29
    Smid- 14

    I think it would have been a bad trade for the Oil (primary reason being Heatley seems to be more concerned about himself vs. team). The above sort of suggests the Oilers were giving up a lot to get a guy that is pretty one dimentional.

    It is a bit apples and oranges, as you’d have to stick the guys into the other team’s roster to work through what their contribution would have been. I’m going to be working on that soon, not for Heatley but for looking at free agents.

  6. David, yeah Penner certainly is inconsistent. Fortunately, it looks like he’s on tonight (vs. Predators).

    Jonathan, I agree that you would have to include the contributions of additional players to make the comparison valid as one roster player getting 80 points has more value than 2 getting the same (all other things being equal). I had mentioned something to that effect over at the Cult of Hockey when David posted the Heatley Trade Analyzer post.

    As for the Heatley trade itself, my initial thoughts were that it would have made the team better in the short-term. However, if Penner finds some consistency and Smid continues to play well–along with a good year from Cogliano, then it’s hard to really say.

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